Our Twin Cities Real Estate Blog

Jan. 21, 2022

Just Listed: 215 10th Avenue S #533, Minneapolis, MN 55415

Just Listed | List Price: $449,900
Luxury Bridgewater Lofts Condo in Prime Downtown Location

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Description: Bridgewater Lofts | Beds: 2 | Baths: 2 | Sq Ft: 1,100+ | Garage: 1 | Welcome to Unit 533 of the Mill District’s Bridgewater Lofts building. Hardwood floors span the open floorplan featuring tall ceilings and floor to ceiling windows. The unit is filled with high end features including granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, a Murphy bed in the second bedroom and more! The primary suite features a massive walk through closet and a luxurious private bathroom with a double vanity, separate shower and jetted tub. There is 1 garage stall and storage included in the underground, secure garage. Enjoy your private balcony or venture to the common spaces including a rooftop pool & hot tub, patio space with a bonfire area, totally renovated community room or state of the art fitness center, all offering fantastic views of the city. The building is completely secure, has on-site management and is within walking distance to the Vikings stadium, Trader Joe’s, Guthrie Theater, walking paths, many restaurants and sits across from Gold Medal Park.

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For more information or to arrange a private showing of this listing, email or call us today at 612.888.HOME (4663).

Jan. 6, 2022

Home inventory in the Twin Cities collapsed 32% to a new all-time low in December

By Nick Leyendecker, Co-Founder | Broker | REALTOR®

(Sources: You can track Twin Cities housing market trends here. You can track mortgage rates here. You can track home builder confidence here. You can track lumber prices here.)

Home inventory in the Twin Cities fell 32% in December to 4,287 units (homes, condos, lofts & townhouses), a new all-time low and 20% below the previous record of 5,378 units from December of 2021. This will no doubt set the stage for another bidding-war filled spring market as the seasonal rise in demand finds a worse inventory shortage than it found in 2021.

The Median Home Price: The median home price in the Twin Cities fell 2.6% in December to $331,000 as the seasonal contraction cycle continues. The median home price will probably fall marginally as a lagging indicator for sales closing in January as the demand in December was soft but with inventory bottoming and demand picking up in January, prices are likely to turn back up for sale that close in February.

Note: This doesn't mean that all home prices fell in December. There are some Twin Cities segments where prices are actually continuing to rise marginally through the winter contraction because inventory has fallen faster than demand or because the area has pent up demand that remains unfulfilled.

Home Inventory: Home inventory fell 32% in December to 4,287 units which is 20% below the previous all-time low in inventory that was set in December of 2020. This will absolutely set the stage for another significant rise in home prices for 2022. We expect another marginal dip in inventory in January and then we expect inventory to chase demand all the way through late summer/early fall.

Pending Home Sales: Pending sales fell 31% in December to 3,265 units which is a predictible element of the seasonal contraction. We expect demand to move up marginally in January and then explode exponentially into the spring market of 2022.

Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates moved up 3.5% in December to 3.22% for the average 30-year-fixed conventional mortgage in the U.S. That rate represents an 18-month-high but is still very low in historical terms.

Lumber Prices: Lumber prices moved up another 20% in December. They remain up 126% from their correction in August and up 300% from their 2020 low.

Home Builder Confidence: The NAHB housing market index in the US edged up 1 point to 84 in December of 2021, the highest since February and beating market forecasts of 83. Builders sited strong demand met with scarce inventory as their primary reasons for being optimistic.

This concludes my Twin Cities housing market insight for January of 2022. Please don't hesitate to call us at 952-222-SOLD if you would like to go more in depth on a particular market segment or dive into the current fair market value of a property that you currently own or manage.

Posted in Market Insight
Dec. 21, 2021

Home inventory fell 22% in November as the market continues its winter consolidation

By Nick Leyendecker, Co-Founder | Broker | REALTOR®

(Sources: You can track Twin Cities housing market trends here. You can track mortgage rates here. You can track home builder confidence here. You can track lumber prices here.)

The Twin Cities housing market continues to follow the prototypical winter consolidation cycle by all measurable data points which points to a set up for another year of significant housing price inflation during 2022.

The Median Home Price: The median home price in the Twin Cities fell marginally (.2%) in November as we continue the normal cycle of winter contraction. Home prices will likely continue to fall through December and January, as demand continues to soften through the slowest months of the year with a likely turn around for prices in February.

Note: This doesn't mean that all home prices fell in November. There are some Twin Cities segments where prices are actually continuing to rise marginally through the winter contraction because inventory has fallen faster than demand.

Home Inventory: Home inventory fell 22% in November to about 6,200 units which is typical of the winter market contraction. If that trend continues as we expect it to through December and January, we will likely be setting a new all-time-low for housing inventory in the Twin Cities. 5,372 units would be a new record low but we are forecasting to be below 5,000 units for the first time which, if accurate, would be especially bullish for home prices in 2022.


Pending Home Sales: Pending sales fell 18% in November to about 4,700 units which is almost identical year over year and which falls in line with a typical winter contraction cycle. We expect demand to continue to fall over December and January before it turns around in February.


Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates are flat month over month at 3.12% for the average 30-year fixed conventional mortgage in the U.S. which is up about 17% from the record low rates of last December.


Lumber Prices: Commodity price inflation seems to have cooled off for the time being with an exception of lumber prices which exploded to the upside in November, up 45% month over month and up 3X from their 2020 lows. I do not know enough about the lumber market to forecast future lumber prices but I want to report what happens with lumber as rising construction costs have an impact on future existing home prices.

Home Builder Confidence: The NAHB housing market index in the US edged up 1 point to 84 in December of 2021, the highest since February and beating market forecasts of 83 with builders citing strong demand met with scarce inventory as their primary reason for optimism.


This concludes my Twin Cities housing market insight for December of 2021. Please don't hesitate to call us at 952-222-SOLD if you would like to go more in depth on a particular market segment or dive into the current fair market value of a property that you currently own or manage.

Posted in Market Insight
Nov. 23, 2021

Market cycle normalizing, mortgage rates ticking up, lumber prices re-inflating

By Nick Leyendecker, Co-Founder | Broker | REALTOR®

(Sources: You can track Twin Cities housing market trends here. You can track mortgage rates here. You can track home builder confidence here. You can track lumber prices here.)

The Twin Cities housing market cycle appears to be normalizing as pandemic related impacts continue to dissipate. If that normalization process fulfills, it will restore some of the lost predictability back to the market cycle and make home buying and selling decisions based on timing, easier to make.

There continue to be underlying macro economic conditions like a rapidly rising CPI, rising bond yields, GDP growth question marks and Federal Reserve decisions regarding monetary policy that will continue to evolve and have ranging impacts on our local housing market but those factors have historical reference points to a degree, unlike the unprecedented pandemic related impacts and policy decisions (both monetary and regulatory) that were made by governments and central banks around the world, in response to the pandemic.

With the above in mind, we expect the seasonal correction that is currently underway for Twin Cities' home prices to continue through January as housing inventory consolidates, setting up for another bullish spring market. We expect that pending sales will start to turn around from their anticipated winter lows sometime between mid-January and early February, 2022 and we expect prices for closed sales to be officially in upward trend by February's month end, although 2021 peak pricing probably won't be recovered until sometime in March of 2022, for closed sales prices.

The Median Home Price: The median home price continued to correct in October falling .3% from the previous month to $340,000. That is up 8% from last October and up 48% over the past 5 years.

Home Inventory: One of the biggest distortions the pandemic had on housing was with a deep suppression of new listings and therefore, the inventory level. One of the reasons I believe that the market is normalizing is that in 2021, inventory followed the prevailing historical trend by steadily rising with the market through September and then by initiating a downtrend in October. As such, home inventory fell 9.5% in October, initiating what I believe to be the seasonal contraction which will likely have inventory continuing to contract until February/March.


Pending Home Sales: Pending home sales rebounded up 2.5% in October. A minor fall rebound for sales in not uncommon for October as this also happened in 2018 and 2019. Pending sales numbers will likely continue to decline from now through February.

Mortgage Rates: As of late, there has been some unusual volatility in the bond market due to inflation concerns which has lead to increased volatility in mortgage rates. On net, mortgage rates have been moving up since mid-July and currently sit at 3.10% for the average 30-year conventional mortgage in the United States which is just 2.5% below the 12-month high. The Fed's $120 billion per month bond purchasing program (a reaction to the pandemic) which includes direct buying of mortgage backed securities (which will begin to be tapered down next month) is putting downward pressure on mortgage rates, however if the Fed completely removes that ongoing support and/or if inflation continues to persist, catalysts for rising rates will continue to exist. With the amount of debt in the system and with asset prices inflated to record valuations as a result of their continual policy of easy money, I don't believe the Fed is actually in a position to tighten monetary policy (I think they can only bluff) so I think that any significant rise in long term interest rates will prompt a return to the $120 billion per month support, if not an increased level of support.


Lumber Prices: Lumber prices have been steadily moving up since they bottomed out back in August but just in the last week, they have moved up 29% which begs the question, is inflation transitory or is inflation a monetary phenomenon that will persist until real, meaningful monetary tightening occurs? If lumber price inflation sustains, that will be bearish for home builder profitability, home builder confidence and housing inventory, which would be bullish for existing home prices.

Home Builder Confidence: The NAHB housing market index in the US has been recovering since lumber prices bottomed out in August. The index rose three points to 83 in November of 2021, the highest in six months, beating market forecasts of 80 as demand for homes remains strong in spite of higher prices and longer wait times. I think that rising interest rates and persistent price inflation of raw materials will be the biggest factors to keep an eye on with regards to builder confidence in 2022 and into the future.


This concludes my Twin Cities housing market insight for November of 2021. Please don't hesitate to call us at 952-222-SOLD if you would like to go more in depth on a particular market segment or dive into the current fair market value of a property that you currently own or manage.

Posted in Market Insight
Oct. 28, 2021

Just SOLD: 1658 119th Avenue NE, Blaine, MN 55449

SOLD | List Price: $399,900
Welcome Home to a Private Oasis 

We represented the seller of this property which sold in 4 days for $460,000 (115% of list price) and closed on 10-21-21.

Client Review:"We worked with Nick for several years in preparation for selling our house.  He was very patient with us, and stuck it out until we were finally ready.  Once we listed the house - his advice and experience got us way more for our home than we ever thought!  And after the sale, Sage was a pleasure to work with on all the other details!!  We haven't popped to the top on the bottle of Champagne yet - but we will some day!  Thanks so much!" -Amy and Curt (Source: Google)

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Description: Acres: .57 | Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq Ft: 2,100+ | Garage: 4 | This pristinely maintained home sits on a completely private, maturely wooded lot set far back from the road. The beautifully landscaped yard offers multiple entertaining spaces, low maintenance perennial gardens, a large Azek composite deck and a charming bonfire pit set back in a cozy wooded area. The home has an open floorplan with vaulted ceilings and ample natural light. Updates include a newer washer/dryer, furnace, water heater, black stainless steel appliances, fresh carpet, paint, replaced roof, driveway, maintenance-free siding and more! The massive 1,200 square foot attached garage is insulated, heated, wired for 110 and 220, has cabinets, workbenches and attic storage with lights. There is an additional detached 10' x 20' storage building on a 20' x 20' cement slab, wired with 110 and lighting. Enjoy this beautiful wooded oasis located near tons of parks, lakes, restaurants & retail with quick and easy access to Central Avenue.

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To schedule your free equity analysis email or call us today at 952.222.SOLD (7653).

Posted in JUST SOLD
Sept. 17, 2021

Just SOLD: 8401 Groveland Road, Mounds View, MN 55112

SOLD | List Price: $299,900
Charming Home in Mounds View School District

We represented the seller of this property which sold in 3 days for $331,000 (110% of list price) and closed on 9-8-21.

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Description: Acres: .23 | Beds: 4 | Baths: 2 | Sq Ft: 1,900+ | Garage: 2 | This charming home has been nicely maintained, periodically updated by the original owner and sits on a flat, maturely wooded located in the highly desired Mounds View school district. The home is bright with natural light, featuring vaulted ceilings and an open layout. All of the ceilings and walls are freshly painted and the A/C is less than 2 years old. The charming gas fireplace has a convenient chute connected to the garage for easy wood transfer and storage. The lower level offers 2 additional bedrooms, a nice sized laundry room with a large bay window, a full bathroom, a spacious wrap-around family room and plenty of under-stairs storage. Exterior features include an attached 2-car garage with an electronic lift for storing above, a large tiered deck, a wide driveway, a storage shed, and a fully fenced, beautifully landscaped yard. Enjoy the one block walk to Groveland park, easy access to multiple highways and nearby restaurants and shopping.

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For more information or to arrange a private showing of this listing, email or call us today at 612.888.HOME (4663).

Posted in JUST SOLD
Sept. 3, 2021

Just SOLD: 4021 Silver Lake Terrace NE, St. Anthony, MN 55421

SOLD | List Price: $1,530,000
Beautiful Walk-out Rambler on Silver Lake

We represented the buyer of this property which sold for $1,440,000 (94% of list price) and closed on 9-1-21.

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Description: Acres: 1.2 | Beds: 6 | Baths: 4 | Sq Ft: 5,700+ | Garage: 4

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To schedule a free equity analysis email or call us today at 952.222.SOLD (7653). 

Posted in JUST SOLD, Luxury Homes
Sept. 3, 2021

2021's epic rate of inflation for Twin Cities' home prices shows signs of seasonal cooling

By Nick Leyendecker, Co-Founder | Broker | REALTOR®

(Sources: You can track Twin Cities housing market trends here. You can track mortgage rates here. You can track home builder confidence here. You can track lumber prices here.)

As of August 30th, the median home price in the Twin Cities is up 17% YTD, an epic incline that falls in line with our forecast from back in February. With that said, lumber prices have corrected (although still above pre-pandemic levels), inventory has recovered (although still at a seasonally adjusted record low) and the seasonal correction in housing prices, which typically begins in June (but has been delayed the past two years due to pandemic induced dynamics) does appear to have begun as we head into a more relaxed, fall market. It should also be noted that pandemic and civil unrest induced migration patterns that were holding down price inflation for the inner luxury markets, have eased and that although the suburb markets have still been outperforming, the city markets have begun to recover. 

The Median Home Price: With record low housing inventory, record low mortgage rates and inflating prices for goods and services in the construction sector persisting through the pandemic, the seasonal correction in home prices from last winter was stifled while the seasonal boom was maximized, resulting in a 12% YOY net increase (from peak to peak) for the median home price as compared to an average of 8.7% for the Twin Cities during the 7 years preceding the pandemic. As of August 30th, the median home price in the Twin Cities sits at a new record high of $350,000.

Home Inventory: As of August 30th, there are 7,915 active homes, townhouses and condos for sale in the Twin Cities market which is a seasonally adjusted, record low (down 22% year over year and down 38% over two years). Month's Supply of Inventory also sits at a seasonally adjusted record low at 1.4 months down from 2.0 months, YOY. As you can see by the chart below, inventory had already trended to record low levels preceding the pandemic and then pandemic inspired, inflationary dynamics caused the situation to exacerbate.


Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates remain virtually unchanged YOY and currently sit at 2.87% for the average 30-year fixed conventional mortgage which is just above the all time record low of 2.65%. Mortgage backed securities aside, The Federal Reserve's balance of U.S. treasuries has grown 130% in the past 12 months. So fair since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve's entire balance sheet has more than doubled from $4 trillion to more than $8 trillion. So long as the Federal Reserve continues on with this unprecedented monetary intervention (using an ever expanding supply of US dollars to buy unprecedented volumes of treasuries and mortgage backed securities), mortgage rates are likely to remain historically low.


Lumber Prices: As economic pause / lock-down induced supply chain stresses have eased, so has the price of lumber which has come down almost 70% since it's peak back in May. With that said, the lumber price currently sits at $535 per 1,000 board feet which is still 40% above the 2019 average. I think this scenario is evidence that certainly some of the inflation that we have witnessed has been transitory but unless the monetary environment changes, a more pronounced and steady rise in the price of goods and services is likely to be part of the post-pandemic, "new normal". This dramatic correction in lumber prices will help to bring the cost of building back down to a feasible level for some area which could take a little bit of the pressure off of the inventory level down the road but if the price of lumber continues a steady underlying rise, builder confidence will continue to erode.

Home Builder Confidence: The NAHB housing market index in the US dropped to 75 in August 2021, the lowest since July 2020 and well below market expectations of 80. Builder confidence has been in steady decline since November of 2020. Builders have cited concerns about elevated levels of price inflation and ever stretching home affordability as primary factors for the decline in confidence.

Looking Forward: If the historical cycle repeats as it usually does, we are expecting a recovery from the Labor Day lull and a pretty strong market for the remainder of September, followed by a correction in home prices of 3 - 6% for closed sales from November thru January. During that period, buyer activity will certainly slow dramatically but so will the rate of new listings so we are expecting home inventory to decline over that time to at or near a new record low, setting up for another strong spring market for price growth in 2022.

This concludes my Twin Cities housing market insight for August of 2021. Please don't hesitate to call us at 952-222-SOLD if you would like to go more in depth on a particular market segment or dive into the current fair market value of a property that you currently own or manage.

Posted in Market Insight
Aug. 12, 2021

Just SOLD: 371 Water Street, Excelsior, MN 55331

SOLD | List Price: $1,500,000
The Bird House Inn is a Rare Live and/or Work Opportunity in the Heart of Excelsior

We represented the seller of this property which sold in 27 days for $1,485,000 (99% of list price) and closed on 8-11-21.

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Description: Prime, Excelsior Village Location | Acres: .44 | Structures: 2 | Units: 6 | Kitchens: 4 | Garage Stalls: 4 | Off Street Parking Spaces: 17

This is a rare opportunity to live and/or work in the heart of the Excelsior village at the Bird House Inn property which is currently operating as an owner occupied Bed & Breakfast / VRBO property / Event Space. Run the business as a classic B&B, convert to a lucrative, lower maintenance VRBO model or operate as a hybrid. The property features a 6 bed, 5 bath, 3,000 square foot B&B structure and a 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,300 square foot cottage which is currently used as an owner's residence featuring an open floor plan, a chef's kitchen and a 2 car, attached, heated garage with a drain and 100 amp service. All of this is set on a beautiful, private, .44 acre lot along prime, historic Water Street with an abundance of flat, green space and off street parking for up to 17 vehicles. The property has been vigorously maintained and extensively improved by the current owners. Some of the improvements to the B&B structure include a brand new foundation, a new 1" water main, new 100 amp electrical service and completely renovated bathrooms with heated floors and high end finishes. The cottage was originally constructed in 1990 but has undergone full renovation in 2007/2015.

This property is located within the Downtown Excelsior Historical District and as such, any exterior changes to the structures are potentially subject to recommendations from the Heritage Preservation Commission. Measurements within this listing are deemed accurate but are not guaranteed. The buyer is responsible for verifying all measurements. Skies in property photos may be edited.

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To schedule your free equity analysis email or call us today at 952.222.SOLD (7653).

Posted in JUST SOLD, Luxury Homes
Aug. 2, 2021

Just SOLD: 5600 Parkwood Lane, Edina, MN 55436

SOLD | List Price: $1,695,000
Stunning Mediterranean with Resort Style Backyard

We represented the buyer of this property which sold for $1,650,000 and closed on 7-26-21.

Description: Acres: .62 | Beds: 5 | Baths: 5 | Sq Ft: 6,100+ | Garage: 3

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View Our SOLD Properties

To schedule a free equity analysis email or call us today at 952.222.SOLD (7653). 

Posted in JUST SOLD, Luxury Homes